Covid-19 Trend Analysis

Project Description: The purpose of the project was to build a risk trend analysis tool for the LA county government to easily visualize and determine the risk trend of LA county regions.

1. Data Collection

In order to determine the LA country’s risk-score trend, the following datasets were utilized:

1. Covid-19 Risk Score of LA country (RMDS)
2. Daily new cases and deaths of each region within LA County (http://publichealth.lacounty.gov)
3. Lists of LA country regions

2. Methodology:

A number of new cases and Risk-Score of LA county regions showed regular oscillation characteristics with a period of 7-10 days. With large oscillations, a simple analysis of trends could lead to inaccurate conclusions about the Covid-19 situation in each LA region. In order to reduce a large amount of noise/variance in the data, a moving average of 18 days was calculated.

3. Categorization of Regions: Trending Up, Neutral, Trending Down

By taking a slope analysis of moving averages, the regions of LA county were divided into three categories: trending up, neutral, trending down. This data is updated daily to the LA county government to let them know which regions of LA county will experience a serious increase in Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks.

4. Output: Map-Based Solution

The final outputs of the projects were:

1. time-series plots of Covid-19 total cases and risk-score trend in each region
2. a table ranking regions of LA county by risk-score trend (higher ranking = higher risk trend)

The daily updated table was sync to a color-coded interactive map RMDS RISK SCORE MAP enabling the audience to easily determine the risk level of regions that they are interested in.

For more details see COVID 19 TREND ANALYSIS GitHub Repo.